Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Cyclonic Storm Arnab
“The Severe Cyclonic Storm “Arnab” over West central Bay of Bengal intensified into a ‘Very Severe Cyclonic Storm’ and lay centered at 02.30 a.m. of today, the 27th October, 2026 over the near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 85.4°E about 890 km to the north-east of Kankasanthurai. It is very likely to continue to move west-northwestwards till 05.30 p.m. of 27th October and thereafter, it is very likely to move northwestwards and cross the Indian land through Andhra Pradesh coast as a very severe cyclonic storm by 11.30 a.m. of 28th October, 2026. Although this system is not expected to have a direct impact on Sri Lanka, the showery condition over the southwestern parts of the island is expected continue today, as the wind flow associated with the system extends across the island. Wind speeds in the sea areas marked under the “Warning” category may increase to 80-140 kmph at times, heavy thundershowers can occur, the wave height may increase about (3.0 – 4.0) meters in the mentioned sea areas and the sea conditions in these areas will become very rough.”
Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka · Tue 27 Oct, 08:00 · quoted as issued
JTWC places it 850 km from Sri Lanka (north-east of Point Pedro), moving west at 19 km/h.
Last checked Tue 27 Oct, 11:52.
Where it is going
Move through the forecast
Tue 27 Oct, 11:30
- Position
- 16.0°N 83.9°E
- Strength
- –
- Wind (JTWC)
- 175 km/h
- From Sri Lanka
- 790 km, north-east of Point Pedro
- Basis
- Past position, from the tracks
Two agencies, two tracks, shown as issued. A line is not the edge of danger: rain and wind reach far beyond it.
In Sri Lanka today
Met Department warnings in force
Red · Warning for strong winds and rough seas.
For the Bay of Bengal and deep and shallow sea areas around the island. · Issued Tue 27 Oct, 08:00 · Valid until Tue 27 Oct, 20:00
Text as issued
For Multiday Boats
The Severe Cyclonic Storm “Arnab” over West central Bay of Bengal intensified into a ‘Very Severe Cyclonic Storm’ and lay centered at 02.30 a.m. of today, the 27th October, 2026 over the near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 85.4°E about 890 km to the north-east of Kankasanthurai. It is very likely to continue to move west-northwestwards till 05.30 p.m. of 27th October and thereafter, it is very likely to move northwestwards and cross the Indian land through Andhra Pradesh coast as a very severe cyclonic storm by 11.30 a.m. of 28th October, 2026. Although this system is not expected to have a direct impact on Sri Lanka, the showery condition over the southwestern parts of the island is expected continue today, as the wind flow associated with the system extends across the island. Wind speeds in the sea areas marked under the “Warning” category may increase to 80-140 kmph at times, heavy thundershowers can occur, the wave height may increase about (3.0 – 4.0) meters in the mentioned sea areas and the sea conditions in these areas will become very rough.
Therefore, Naval and fishing communities are warned not to venture to the sea areas bounded by 10N to 20N latitude and 80E to 95E longitude until further notice. Naval and fishing communities operating in those sea areas are advised to move away from the affected sea areas.
Evacuation level in 10 areas
Also: Alert level in 33 areas · Watch level in 28 areas
Districts: Nuwara Eliya (6), Ratnapura (16), Kalutara (11), Kegalle (11), Gampaha (1), Kandy (13), Kurunegala (4), Galle (5), Matara (2), Colombo (2).
The cyclone itself is not a landslide warning. NBRI's bulletin is passed on as issued.
Call 117 · DMCDetails ›The Met Department's forecast
The Severe Cyclonic Storm “Arnab” over West central Bay of Bengal intensified into a ‘Very Severe Cyclonic Storm’ and lay centered at 02.30 a.m. of today, the 27th October, 2026 over the near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 85.4°E about 890 km to the north-east of Kankasanthurai. It is very likely to continue to move west-northwestwards till 05.30 p.m. of 27th October and thereafter, it is very likely to move northwestwards and cross the Indian land through Andhra Pradesh coast as a very severe cyclonic storm by 11.30 a.m. of 28th October, 2026.
Although this system is not expected to have a direct impact on Sri Lanka, the showery condition over the southwestern parts of the island is expected continue today, as the wind flow associated with the system extends across the island.
Showers or thundershowers will occur at times in Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and North-western provinces and in Kandy and Nuwara-Eliya districts and, fairly heavy falls above 75 mm are likely at some places in these areas.
Showers or thunder showers will occur at a few places after 1.00 p.m. in the Eastern province.
Strong winds of about (40-50) kmph can be expected at times over Western slopes of the Central hills, Northern, North-central and North-western provinces and in Trincomalee and Hambantota Districts.
The general public is kindly requested to take adequate precautions to minimize damage caused by temporary localized strong winds and lightning during thundershowers.
Department of Meteorology · as issued · Forecast issued Tue 27 Oct, 05:30
Forecast track, side by side
Times are Sri Lanka time. IMD's track is from the Met Department's latest sea warning; JTWC's from its latest warning.
| Time | IMD position | IMD category | JTWC position | JTWC wind | From Sri Lanka |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct, 05:30 | – | – | 16.0°N 84.8°E | 165 km/h | 850 km |
| Tue 27 Oct, 17:30 | – | – | 16.0°N 83.0°E | 185 km/h | 750 km |
| Wed 28 Oct, 05:30 | – | – | 16.2°N 82.0°E | 175 km/h | 730 km |
| Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 | – | – | 17.3°N 81.7°E | 130 km/h | 850 km |
| Thu 29 Oct, 05:30 | – | – | 19.2°N 81.6°E | 65 km/h | 1,050 km |
| Thu 29 Oct, 17:30 | – | – | 21.1°N 81.7°E | 45 km/h | 1,260 km |
How strong it gets
JTWC's maximum sustained wind (1-minute mean). IMD measures over 3 minutes, so its figures read lower. Bands are IMD's categories.
What JTWC's forecasters say
JTWC's confidence: track high, strength medium.
The track speed of TC 02B accelerated over the past 6 hours in a due west direction, primarily under the influence of the STR to the northeast. The track is forecast to turn sharply poleward after tau 24 as the steering ridge fully asserts control over the system. Landfall over southeastern India is expected between tau 36 and 48 as the track continues northward into central India. Continued intensification is forecast in the highly favorable environment over the next 12 hours, and then level off as the outer periphery begins to interact with the indian subcontinent. Rapid weakening over land is forecast after tau 36, with dissipation expected by tau 72.
JTWC's words, in English as issued.
Updates
- Met Department: Red · Warning for strong winds and rough seas.
- JTWC warning 5 for Arnab: 16.0°N 84.8°E, 165 km/h, 850 km from Sri Lanka.
- JTWC warning 4 for Arnab: 16.0°N 85.8°E, 150 km/h, 910 km from Sri Lanka.
- Met Department: Red · Warning for strong winds and rough seas.
- JTWC warning 3 for Arnab: 15.9°N 87.2°E, 150 km/h, 1,010 km from Sri Lanka.
- A cyclonic system is listed: this page switched on.
- Met Department: Amber · Advisory for Heavy Rain
- Met Department: Red · Warning for strong winds and rough seas.
- GDACS: Red alert for ARNAB-26 (India).
- JTWC warning 2 for Arnab: 15.3°N 88.4°E, 120 km/h, 1,060 km from Sri Lanka.
Sources and next updates
Next JTWC warnings: Tue 27 Oct, 14:30, Tue 27 Oct, 20:30, Wed 28 Oct, 02:30, Wed 28 Oct, 08:30.
Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka: the official voice for Sri Lanka. Forecast and warnings as issued. meteo.gov.lk
India Meteorological Department (RSMC New Delhi): the WMO centre for this region. Its track as relayed by the Met Department. rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (US Navy): warnings, track and reasoning. Not a warning for Sri Lanka. 02B
GDACS (European Commission Joint Research Centre): alert levels for the countries in the path. ARNAB-26 · Red
Warnings for Sri Lanka come from the Department of Meteorology and the Disaster Management Centre (117). LankaWatch passes them on and is not an official service.